Land becomes scarce

Only part of the land area is suitable for food production. 1.6 billion hectares are used for arable agriculture, 3.2 for permanent pasture and 0.1 for permanent crops. More land for food produc-tion is only available in the world to a limited extent (irrigation of dry areas, deforestation, ter-racing of mountains). A growing world population must make do with the available land area. Worldwide, the area of land used for agriculture has fallen from 5.6 ha in 1950 to 1.8 ha per person in 2020 (-67%). The available area per person in Africa has fallen particularly sharply from 9.4 to 1.8 ha (-81%). If population figures continue to rise until 2050, the amount of arable land available worldwide will fall to 0.6 ha per person. In Africa and Asia, as many as 10 peo-ple will have to harvest their food from one hectare of arable land (0.1 ha per person) (Table below). This is a major challenge in the intensification of land use to produce enough food (Rah-mann and Grimm 2020).

If population figures in Africa, the most challeged continent in the future, continue to rise until 2050, the amount of arable land available worldwide will fall to 0.6 ha per person. In Africa and Asia, as many as 10 peo-ple will have to harvest their food from one hectare of arable land (0.1 ha per person) (Table below). This is a major challenge in the intensification of land use to produce enough food (Rahmann and Grimm 2020).

Table: Total land and cropland per person 1950, 2020, 2050 and 2100 (ha/person)

Source: Rahmann and Grimm (2020), medium population development prediction till 2100

Photo 1: Africa holds immense agricultural potential, yet much of its farmland remains underused or only partially cultivated. The four women show the corners of a 25 x 20 m square (500 m2), the estimated available farmland space per person in Africa in a worst-case scenario, which will be available in 2100 for food production. This is four times less than today, despite already now is a food shortage (Rahmann and Grimm 2020). The need to cut the natural woods to have more farmland is recently the strategy for many families and is called ‘extensification’ or ‘shifting cultivation’.

Today, around 1.17 billion hectares of land across the African continent are classified as agri-cultural - roughly 40% of the total area. Countries such as Sudan, South Africa, and Nigeria account for some of the largest shares. However, beyond the land already in use, experts esti-mate that between 480 and 840 million hectares could still be brought under productive agriculture. This vast “untapped” area represents one of the largest reserves of potential farmland in the world. Over the past two decades, Africa’s arable land has already expanded significantly - by more than 50% between 2000 and 2019, according to FAO estimates.

That said, “available farmland” doesn’t simply mean empty land waiting to be cultivated. Many of these areas are in remote regions, lack infrastructure, or face ecological and social constraints. Roads, irrigation systems, and market access are often limited, while soil quality and rainfall patterns vary widely. In addition, a large share of this land is held under customary or commu-nal ownership, meaning it cannot easily be bought or transferred without local agreements. Environmental protection laws also restrict conversion of forests and sensitive ecosystems into farmland. On the other side, population will grow three to five times till 2100 (minimum and maximum with 80% predictability).